Expected Value Calculator
Find out whether a bet is worth taking. Enter the price you can get and a sharp two-way market, such as Pinnacle's, and the calculator strips out the vig, estimates the true win probability, and shows your expected profit.
Example numbers are pre-filled. Replace them with the prices in front of you.
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How to use the EV calculator
- Choose where your fair probability comes from. Most bettors devig a sharp book’s two-way market. If you already have fair odds or a win percentage from your own model, pick that option instead.
- Enter your stake and the odds you can bet. This is the price at your sportsbook.
- Enter both sides of the sharp market. The calculator removes the sharp book’s margin using the method you pick.
- Read the verdict. Positive EV means the price beats the fair line.
The math
Here p is the fair win probability and d is the decimal odds you can bet.
Worked example
Pinnacle prices a game at −102 / −108. Those implied probabilities are 50.50% and 51.92%, which add up to 102.42%, so Pinnacle is holding about 2.4%. Scaling both down proportionally (the multiplicative method) gives a fair probability of 49.30% for your side, or about +103 in fair odds.
Your sportsbook offers the same side at +110 (2.10). EV = 0.4930 × 2.10 − 1 = +3.54%, or $3.54 of expected profit per $100 staked.
That doesn’t mean you’ll win $3.54. You’ll win $110 or lose $100, and across hundreds of bets like it the average should come out near +3.5%.
Get +EV bets flagged against sharp prices
ProfitDuel's EV Matcher and Odds Screener compare US sportsbook prices with the sharpest books in the world and surface bets that beat the fair line.
Start the $1 ProfitDuel trialAffiliate link. The $1, 3-day trial applies to ProfitDuel's Starter plan as listed in September 2026. 21+ and in states where online sports betting is legal.Frequently asked questions
What EV percentage is worth betting?
Many +EV bettors set a floor of 1% to 3% on main markets, and higher for props and thin markets where the sharp line itself is less reliable. A small edge on a liquid NFL side is often more trustworthy than a large edge on an obscure prop.
Which devig method should I use?
Multiplicative is the standard starting point. Power and additive methods shift more of the vig onto longshots, which is usually more realistic for lopsided markets. Worst case takes the least favorable estimate, which filters out marginal bets. Our devig guide compares them.
Does positive EV mean I will win this bet?
No. EV is the average result over many similar bets. A +5% EV bet at even money still loses about half the time. The edge shows up over hundreds of bets, not one.
Can I use sharp books other than Pinnacle?
Yes. Circa, Bookmaker, and betting exchanges with good liquidity are also used as reference lines. Many bettors blend several sharp books into one fair price.